33 - 0 currently.
55 yards of offense.
1st home shutout in 32 years.
How much more evidence do you need Woodert?
End it.
This once proud program has been further dismantled by one Ty Willingham.
Be decisive, show the leadership you've been given your respective positions for.
Name Tormey interim coach and start the search in earnest.
No good comes from extending this march that we all know ends with Ty's removal as the HC at Washington.
Take the cloud from over the football program and let the kids move forward.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Sunday, October 19, 2008
2008-2009 Prognostication
So we're 15 days away from tip-off of the Huskies 2008-2009 campaign and it's time for me to do my annual breakdown of the season.
This year will be as interesting as any season since I've been a fan as we see Tia's system truly take hold, but, there's a number of question marks as we head into the season. Who is going to run the point? Is Romeo as good as her billing out of Australia? Will we be able to get consistent rebounding and scoring out of the post players? Can Kingma and Lay live up to their hype? Can the JCs play needed energy minutes and contribute?
Without further ado, here's how I see the season playing out. (Conference record, Overall record)
Any time I use a #/# in the below, I'm referring to a percent to win/lose in the game in question. I'm not a betting man, so don't worry about that, just using it to provide a little insight into how the season could be better or worse than the final record I come up with.
Gonzaga - L (0-0, 0-1)
The Bulldogs were a tournament team a year ago that held up well against Tennessee during the regular season. Graves is a damn fine coach and this early in the season, I think it's too much to expect with such a young Husky roster to best Gonzaga. I see this as a 65% to lose/ 35% win game. To come out with the win, UW must emphasize the advantage they have athletically over the Bulldogs. This will be a game but I see GU winning but not in blowout fashion.
@ Weber St. - W (0-0, 1-1)
Yes it's a road game and we know how tough early season road games ars on young teams, but frankly, the Huskies should absolutely win this game with the athletic and coaching advantages they have.
Boise St - W (0-0, 2-1)
Yes, I know this was an ugly lost last year. I also know this prediction may be scoffed at by certain former players families, but again the athletic advantage and in particular Kingma and Whitcomb and the home court advantage lead to a Husky W. This one is about 60/40 by my estimation.
Seattle U - W (0-0, 3-1)
There is no way that Washington loses this game. SU is no SPU and the Dawgs should win this one in a big, big way. Look for lots of minutes for the bench as this one should only be a contest for 10 minutes or so.
Clemson - W (0-0, 4-1)
The Tigers won 12 games last year and come from a good conference. A quick glance at their roster shows they are not particularly big and the UW should be able to match them in terms of athleticism. The Huskies just don't lose in the Classic without a significant team as an opponent. This is an 80/20 game.
@ Pepperdine - W (0-0, 5-1)
Yes, I know the Waves clobbered us last year, but that was mostly Daphanie Kennedy who has since graduated. The returning Huskies will no doubt remember the outcome of last year's game and be out for some payback. 75/25
(in Cancun) UConn - L (0-0, 5-2)
Short of UConn being decimated by injuries, there's no real scenarios I see that lead me to believe that the Huskies have a chance in this one. If it's inside 30 points, it'll be a satisfactory effort. Inside 20 will be a damn good effort. Inside 10, and the Huskies will have played a great game. 99.999/.0001. All that said, I am really looking forward to making this trip (with 5 of the Hooligans taking a nice sun break in Mexico in December (myself included)).
(in Cancun) FSU - W (0-0, 6-2)
This is not the same Seminole team that beat Stanford 2 seasons ago. I see the UW learning some big lessons in their contest with UConn and putting them to use against the Seminoles a day later. 50/50
(in Cancun) Northern Colorado - W (0-0, 7-2)
A walkover, plain and simple. NCU doesn't have much size and the UW will be able to truly explode offensively in this one.
Kansas St. - L (0-0, 7-3)
KSU is a very solid program with size and talent from a big conference. This may be this year's Purdue game that the Huskies pull out in dramatic fashion but I see the Wildcats being able to exploit their size advantage and win a tough fought game in Hec-Ed. 65/35
A 7-3 non-con record is nothing to sneeze at, particularly with your top incoming freshman (if one believes Hoopgurlz) out for that portion of the season. If the team gels quickly, the games with GU and KSU could turn to wins and 7-3 could turn to 8-2 or 9-1. If the team struggles, it could very easily turn to 6-4, or 5-5. I choose to be optimistic and think that the UW will be respectable and hold down the fort at home.
Washington State - W (1-0, 8-3)
The Cougars just don't beat the Huskies. The Dawgs have a decided advantage on the sidelines and a decided advantage in terms of team speed. Look for the UW to exploit both in this contest and look forward to the debut of one Liz Lay in this ball game (if the current injury assesment/rehab schedule is accurate).
@ Stanford - L - (1-1, 8-4)
Wiggins is gone, but Ogwumike fills some of that void and Stanford will still be Stanford. Look for the trees to pound the Huskies in the post with a steady diet of Appel, Pederson, Boothe and significant contributions from Harmon and Ogwumike. Also of note in this contest is the first collegiate match-up between Ogwumike and Lay who I think will have some tussles (not fights, just big match-ups against each other) over the next 4 seasons.
@ Cal - L (1-2, 8-5)
To steal a line from Lee Corso, this one will be closer than the experts think but Cal will use the home court advantage and the size advantage in the block to best the Dawgs in this contest. 85/15
Oregon - W (2-2, 9-5)
I honestly think this is Bev Smith's last go around in Eugene and I just don't see the Huskies losing at home given a healthy trio of Whitcomb, Kingma and Lay on the perimeter. The Ducks just don't have the horses to keep pace in this one.
Oregon State - W (3-2, 10-5)
Here again the trio cause problems for an opponent. I think McLellan will also be able to produce a strong scoring and rebounding effort in this one and lead the Dawgs to the win.
@ USC - L (3-3, 10-6)
The LA road trip is always a tough, tough swing and despite the injury issues, the Trojans have the talent and size to hold off the UW in a hard fought ballgame in the Galen Center. For the Huskies to come out with a W in this one it's all about 3 words "Run, Baby Run". If they can run the Trojans ragged, they've got a shot. 65/35
@UCLA - W (4-3, 11-6)
Another Run, Baby Run game, but this time it works. I see Whitcomb having another big game in Pauley and being the key to a crucial Pac-10 road W for the Udub. 55/45
Arizona - W (5-3, 12-6)
I think Butts will do some nice things for the Wildcat program but the talent level just isn't there to compete with the middle and upper tier programs in the Pac. This one could be the Lay coming out party as having 3-4 weeks to get back in the rhythm she very well could put up a big night against the overmatched 'Cats.
Arizona State - L (5-4, 12-7)
Much as it pains me, the Sun Devils are just too deep and big for the UW to be able to pull this one out. The fact that if the UW forces the running game plays right into ASU's style also has an impact on this one. I think ASU takes a step back after this season with the departures of January, Dosty, Lacey, Thompson etc. If anyone will dethrone Stanford this season I'd put my money on ASU because they are just flat out deeper than Cal. 80/20
Cal - L - (5-5, 12-8)
The lack of post depth hurts in this one as Hampton/Walker take advantage of foul trouble and provide good numbers in the post and leat the Golden Bears to a tough win in Seattle. The lack of depth for Cal as a whole may lead to a Husky W in the blueprint of last years victory if Hampton gets in foul trouble. 80/20
Stanford - L (5-6, 12-9)
I just don't see a relatively young Husky team having the size and experience (yet) to upset Stanford. The size that the Trees can just run out there ad nauseum is just devastating and as soon as you start collapsing down to double in the block, Hones et al just bury you from outside.
Another close game, but the Cardinal get the job done. 95/5
@Oregon St. - W (6-6, 13-9)
Yet another example of how important team speed and athleticism are to being successful. The Huskies just flat run the Beavs into the ground and leave Gill with a nice win to break the mini-skid.
@Oregon - W (7-6, 14-9)
Wins are hard to come by for the Huskies at Mac Court but I just have a feeling that the Huskies will find a way to get it done in a close game. 60/40
UCLA - W (8-6, 15-9)
Negate the Bruins size advantage with flat out speed. Run after made baskets, run after misses. O-Board like crazy and win this one. 90/10
USC - W (9-6, 16-9)
See the above game. Just run. 80/20
@ASU - L - (9-7, 16-10)
Quite simply, Wells Fargo is a house of horrors and this year the nightmare continues. 95/5
@Arizona - W - (10-7, 17-10)
Trips to the desert used be a darn near guaranteed 2 L trip. That's all changed, and lately the Huskies have owned Arizona at McKale. That trend continues this year and the Huskies keep the Dance dreams alive with a win in Tucson.
@WSU - W - (11-7, 18-10)
With possible conference tourney seeding implications and hopes of making the tourney, the Huskies absolutely must win this contest. Here again, an athleticism advantage makes the difference and the UW gets win #18.
Final Standings & Records (pre-conf tourney)
1. Stanford (17-1, 29-1) Loss at Cal only blemish
2. California (16-2, 25-3) Losses @ Stanford, ASU
3. ASU (15-3, 24-3) Losses to Stanfordx2, Cal
4. UW (11-7, 18-10) Wins tie-breaker with USC by virtue of 2 wins against UCLA
5. USC (11-7, 20-9) Split with UCLA costs them the 4 seed
6. UCLA (9-9, 18-11) Wins over UOx2, OSUx2, WSUx2, UAx2, USC
7. Oregon State (4-14, 13-16) Wins over UO, UA, WSUx2
8. Arizona (3-15, 9-21) Wins over WSU, UO, OSU
9. Oregon (3-15, 9-20) Wins over WSUx2, OSU
10. WSU (1-17, 8-20) Win over UA
Conf Tourney
Night 1
#7 OSU def. #10 WSU
#9 Oregon def. #8 Arizona
Day 2
#4 UW def. #5 USC
USC with 20 wins has already all but guaranteed a trip to the tourney. UW needs the win to get in and gets it done.
#1 Stanford def. #9 Oregon
#3 ASU def. #6 UCLA
#2 Cal def. #7 OSU
Day 3
#2 Cal def. #4 UW
#1 Stanford def. #3 ASU
Day 4
#1 Stanford def. #2 Cal
All Pac-10 1st Team
Alexis Gray Lawson, G, Cal
Briann January, G, ASU
Nneka Ogwumike, F, Stanford
Devanei Hampton, F, Cal
Jayne Appel, C, Stanford
All Pac-10 2nd Team
JJ Hones, G, Stanford
Sami Whitcomb, G, Washington
Ashley Walker, F, Cal
Lauren Lacey, F, ASU
Kayla Pederson, F, Stanford
Pac-10 Player of the Year
Jayne Appel, Stanford
Freshman of the Year
Nneka Ogwumike, Stanford
Coach of the year
Mark Trakh, USC
Post season
UW sneaks into the tourney, drawing a seed in the 7-10 range and by virtue of playing at home, wins in round 1 before falling in the round of 32.
This year will be as interesting as any season since I've been a fan as we see Tia's system truly take hold, but, there's a number of question marks as we head into the season. Who is going to run the point? Is Romeo as good as her billing out of Australia? Will we be able to get consistent rebounding and scoring out of the post players? Can Kingma and Lay live up to their hype? Can the JCs play needed energy minutes and contribute?
Without further ado, here's how I see the season playing out. (Conference record, Overall record)
Any time I use a #/# in the below, I'm referring to a percent to win/lose in the game in question. I'm not a betting man, so don't worry about that, just using it to provide a little insight into how the season could be better or worse than the final record I come up with.
Gonzaga - L (0-0, 0-1)
The Bulldogs were a tournament team a year ago that held up well against Tennessee during the regular season. Graves is a damn fine coach and this early in the season, I think it's too much to expect with such a young Husky roster to best Gonzaga. I see this as a 65% to lose/ 35% win game. To come out with the win, UW must emphasize the advantage they have athletically over the Bulldogs. This will be a game but I see GU winning but not in blowout fashion.
@ Weber St. - W (0-0, 1-1)
Yes it's a road game and we know how tough early season road games ars on young teams, but frankly, the Huskies should absolutely win this game with the athletic and coaching advantages they have.
Boise St - W (0-0, 2-1)
Yes, I know this was an ugly lost last year. I also know this prediction may be scoffed at by certain former players families, but again the athletic advantage and in particular Kingma and Whitcomb and the home court advantage lead to a Husky W. This one is about 60/40 by my estimation.
Seattle U - W (0-0, 3-1)
There is no way that Washington loses this game. SU is no SPU and the Dawgs should win this one in a big, big way. Look for lots of minutes for the bench as this one should only be a contest for 10 minutes or so.
Clemson - W (0-0, 4-1)
The Tigers won 12 games last year and come from a good conference. A quick glance at their roster shows they are not particularly big and the UW should be able to match them in terms of athleticism. The Huskies just don't lose in the Classic without a significant team as an opponent. This is an 80/20 game.
@ Pepperdine - W (0-0, 5-1)
Yes, I know the Waves clobbered us last year, but that was mostly Daphanie Kennedy who has since graduated. The returning Huskies will no doubt remember the outcome of last year's game and be out for some payback. 75/25
(in Cancun) UConn - L (0-0, 5-2)
Short of UConn being decimated by injuries, there's no real scenarios I see that lead me to believe that the Huskies have a chance in this one. If it's inside 30 points, it'll be a satisfactory effort. Inside 20 will be a damn good effort. Inside 10, and the Huskies will have played a great game. 99.999/.0001. All that said, I am really looking forward to making this trip (with 5 of the Hooligans taking a nice sun break in Mexico in December (myself included)).
(in Cancun) FSU - W (0-0, 6-2)
This is not the same Seminole team that beat Stanford 2 seasons ago. I see the UW learning some big lessons in their contest with UConn and putting them to use against the Seminoles a day later. 50/50
(in Cancun) Northern Colorado - W (0-0, 7-2)
A walkover, plain and simple. NCU doesn't have much size and the UW will be able to truly explode offensively in this one.
Kansas St. - L (0-0, 7-3)
KSU is a very solid program with size and talent from a big conference. This may be this year's Purdue game that the Huskies pull out in dramatic fashion but I see the Wildcats being able to exploit their size advantage and win a tough fought game in Hec-Ed. 65/35
A 7-3 non-con record is nothing to sneeze at, particularly with your top incoming freshman (if one believes Hoopgurlz) out for that portion of the season. If the team gels quickly, the games with GU and KSU could turn to wins and 7-3 could turn to 8-2 or 9-1. If the team struggles, it could very easily turn to 6-4, or 5-5. I choose to be optimistic and think that the UW will be respectable and hold down the fort at home.
Washington State - W (1-0, 8-3)
The Cougars just don't beat the Huskies. The Dawgs have a decided advantage on the sidelines and a decided advantage in terms of team speed. Look for the UW to exploit both in this contest and look forward to the debut of one Liz Lay in this ball game (if the current injury assesment/rehab schedule is accurate).
@ Stanford - L - (1-1, 8-4)
Wiggins is gone, but Ogwumike fills some of that void and Stanford will still be Stanford. Look for the trees to pound the Huskies in the post with a steady diet of Appel, Pederson, Boothe and significant contributions from Harmon and Ogwumike. Also of note in this contest is the first collegiate match-up between Ogwumike and Lay who I think will have some tussles (not fights, just big match-ups against each other) over the next 4 seasons.
@ Cal - L (1-2, 8-5)
To steal a line from Lee Corso, this one will be closer than the experts think but Cal will use the home court advantage and the size advantage in the block to best the Dawgs in this contest. 85/15
Oregon - W (2-2, 9-5)
I honestly think this is Bev Smith's last go around in Eugene and I just don't see the Huskies losing at home given a healthy trio of Whitcomb, Kingma and Lay on the perimeter. The Ducks just don't have the horses to keep pace in this one.
Oregon State - W (3-2, 10-5)
Here again the trio cause problems for an opponent. I think McLellan will also be able to produce a strong scoring and rebounding effort in this one and lead the Dawgs to the win.
@ USC - L (3-3, 10-6)
The LA road trip is always a tough, tough swing and despite the injury issues, the Trojans have the talent and size to hold off the UW in a hard fought ballgame in the Galen Center. For the Huskies to come out with a W in this one it's all about 3 words "Run, Baby Run". If they can run the Trojans ragged, they've got a shot. 65/35
@UCLA - W (4-3, 11-6)
Another Run, Baby Run game, but this time it works. I see Whitcomb having another big game in Pauley and being the key to a crucial Pac-10 road W for the Udub. 55/45
Arizona - W (5-3, 12-6)
I think Butts will do some nice things for the Wildcat program but the talent level just isn't there to compete with the middle and upper tier programs in the Pac. This one could be the Lay coming out party as having 3-4 weeks to get back in the rhythm she very well could put up a big night against the overmatched 'Cats.
Arizona State - L (5-4, 12-7)
Much as it pains me, the Sun Devils are just too deep and big for the UW to be able to pull this one out. The fact that if the UW forces the running game plays right into ASU's style also has an impact on this one. I think ASU takes a step back after this season with the departures of January, Dosty, Lacey, Thompson etc. If anyone will dethrone Stanford this season I'd put my money on ASU because they are just flat out deeper than Cal. 80/20
Cal - L - (5-5, 12-8)
The lack of post depth hurts in this one as Hampton/Walker take advantage of foul trouble and provide good numbers in the post and leat the Golden Bears to a tough win in Seattle. The lack of depth for Cal as a whole may lead to a Husky W in the blueprint of last years victory if Hampton gets in foul trouble. 80/20
Stanford - L (5-6, 12-9)
I just don't see a relatively young Husky team having the size and experience (yet) to upset Stanford. The size that the Trees can just run out there ad nauseum is just devastating and as soon as you start collapsing down to double in the block, Hones et al just bury you from outside.
Another close game, but the Cardinal get the job done. 95/5
@Oregon St. - W (6-6, 13-9)
Yet another example of how important team speed and athleticism are to being successful. The Huskies just flat run the Beavs into the ground and leave Gill with a nice win to break the mini-skid.
@Oregon - W (7-6, 14-9)
Wins are hard to come by for the Huskies at Mac Court but I just have a feeling that the Huskies will find a way to get it done in a close game. 60/40
UCLA - W (8-6, 15-9)
Negate the Bruins size advantage with flat out speed. Run after made baskets, run after misses. O-Board like crazy and win this one. 90/10
USC - W (9-6, 16-9)
See the above game. Just run. 80/20
@ASU - L - (9-7, 16-10)
Quite simply, Wells Fargo is a house of horrors and this year the nightmare continues. 95/5
@Arizona - W - (10-7, 17-10)
Trips to the desert used be a darn near guaranteed 2 L trip. That's all changed, and lately the Huskies have owned Arizona at McKale. That trend continues this year and the Huskies keep the Dance dreams alive with a win in Tucson.
@WSU - W - (11-7, 18-10)
With possible conference tourney seeding implications and hopes of making the tourney, the Huskies absolutely must win this contest. Here again, an athleticism advantage makes the difference and the UW gets win #18.
Final Standings & Records (pre-conf tourney)
1. Stanford (17-1, 29-1) Loss at Cal only blemish
2. California (16-2, 25-3) Losses @ Stanford, ASU
3. ASU (15-3, 24-3) Losses to Stanfordx2, Cal
4. UW (11-7, 18-10) Wins tie-breaker with USC by virtue of 2 wins against UCLA
5. USC (11-7, 20-9) Split with UCLA costs them the 4 seed
6. UCLA (9-9, 18-11) Wins over UOx2, OSUx2, WSUx2, UAx2, USC
7. Oregon State (4-14, 13-16) Wins over UO, UA, WSUx2
8. Arizona (3-15, 9-21) Wins over WSU, UO, OSU
9. Oregon (3-15, 9-20) Wins over WSUx2, OSU
10. WSU (1-17, 8-20) Win over UA
Conf Tourney
Night 1
#7 OSU def. #10 WSU
#9 Oregon def. #8 Arizona
Day 2
#4 UW def. #5 USC
USC with 20 wins has already all but guaranteed a trip to the tourney. UW needs the win to get in and gets it done.
#1 Stanford def. #9 Oregon
#3 ASU def. #6 UCLA
#2 Cal def. #7 OSU
Day 3
#2 Cal def. #4 UW
#1 Stanford def. #3 ASU
Day 4
#1 Stanford def. #2 Cal
All Pac-10 1st Team
Alexis Gray Lawson, G, Cal
Briann January, G, ASU
Nneka Ogwumike, F, Stanford
Devanei Hampton, F, Cal
Jayne Appel, C, Stanford
All Pac-10 2nd Team
JJ Hones, G, Stanford
Sami Whitcomb, G, Washington
Ashley Walker, F, Cal
Lauren Lacey, F, ASU
Kayla Pederson, F, Stanford
Pac-10 Player of the Year
Jayne Appel, Stanford
Freshman of the Year
Nneka Ogwumike, Stanford
Coach of the year
Mark Trakh, USC
Post season
UW sneaks into the tourney, drawing a seed in the 7-10 range and by virtue of playing at home, wins in round 1 before falling in the round of 32.
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